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How I’d Bet $100 On The Belmont Stakes

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By: Kevin Martin

Of the three Triple Crown races, the Belmont Stakes has been the place to cash big tickets. Of the thirteen winners this century, seven have paid over $25 to win. Orb and Oxbow, the Derby and Preakness winners, will be among the favorites on Saturday but recent history will not be on their side.

Since 2003, only one winner of the Belmont raced in all three Triple Crown races. The trend of keeping Derby runners out of the Preakness or skipping the first two legs altogether has been the winning formula in the Belmont for the last ten years. Orb, Oxbow, and Will Take Charge are this year’s Belmont entries running in all three legs.  Considering that, in addition to Orb’s flat performance in the Preakness and Oxbow’s inconsistency over his eleven race career, it seems likely that the trend of long shots winning the Belmont will continue in 2013.

In looking for a winner outside the favorites, Overanalyze has the pedigree, class, and human connections that make him a prime win candidate. Overanalyze won the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby before an eleventh place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He has won four races from eight starts, three in graded stakes, including one at Belmont Park last year. He will be ridden by jockey John Velazquez who has won the Belmont Stakes twice since 2007.  He shares the same sire, Dixie Union, as last year’s Belmont winner Union Rags. He should be at least 10 to 1 come post-time and is my pick to win the 2013 Belmont.

Colts that I will include in exacta and trifecta bets with Overanalyze are Palice Malice, Golden Soul, and Revolutionary. Palice Malice ran well in three stakes prior to setting an unsustainable pace in the Kentucky Derby and fading to finish eleventh. His sire, Curlin, won multiple Grade 1 races at 1 1/4 miles and just missed winning the 2007 Belmont. Golden Soul, the second place finisher in the Derby, had a breakout performance at Churchill Downs and should be flying late down the Belmont stretch on Saturday.  Revolutionary will likely be the second betting choice come post time.  He has been among the most consistent 3-year-olds this year. His determined third place in the Derby ended a three race winning streak.

Belmont Stakes: Kentucky Derby and Preakness Winners Set For A Rematch

Top four selections (with program number) for the 2013 Belmont Stakes:

1) Overanalyze (3)

2) Palice Malice (12)

3) Golden Soul (14)

4) Revolutionary (9)

Belmont Betting Strategy

I will start with a $30 win bet on Overanalyze and use my remaining bankroll for exacta and trifecta bets.  I will box my top four selections in an exacta and do the same in a trifecta.  In addition, I will play a trifecta with my top pick Overanalyze keyed in the win position and box five horses in the second and third position. My bets come down to a simple scenario, if Orb and Oxbow run out of the top three, I have a chance to cash some big tickets. I will, however, hedge a bit on this and include Orb on one of my trifecta tickets.

The $100 Belmont Bet

$30 win bet on Overanalyze (3)

$2 exacta box:

Overanalyze (3), Palice Malice (12), Golden Soul (14), Revolutionary (9)

12 bets x $2 = $24

$1 trifecta box:

Overanalyze (3), Palice Malice (12), Golden Soul (14), Revolutionary (9)

24 bets x $1 = $24

$1 trifecta:

Overanalyze (3) with Palice Malice (12), Golden Soul (14), Revolutionary (9), Incognito (6), Orb (5) with Palice Malice (12), Golden Soul (14), Revolutionary (9), Incognito (6), Orb (5)

20 bets x $1 = $20

The total bet is $98. That leaves us with $2 for bus fare home should my picks flop. Good luck! 

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Kevin Martin is the founder of the thoroughbred racing history site Colin’s Ghost and a contributing editor at Hello Race Fans.

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